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Agnieszka Baklarz, Uniwersytet Warszawski

Author(s):

  • Agnieszka Anna Baklarz, Uniwersytet Warszawski Wydział Zarządzania
  • Aleksander Jakimowicz, Instytut Nauk Ekonomicznych PAN

Abstract title:
Duration of diffusion of innovations to developing areas after the removal of the state border between the Federal Republic of Germany and the East Germany

Abstract:
The flow of investments and innovations, similarly as the circulation of goods and services, may encounter barriers resulting from the existence of state borders. The barriers may be of complex nature, which is caused by the outflow of various economic, sociological, legal and cultural phenomena. In this respect, states conduct an economic policy that can range from autarky to relatively full openness. Autarky is the opposite of the international division of labor and usually causes a reduction in economic efficiency. European economic integration, on the other hand, leads to gradual removal of barriers of foreign trade, which facilitates convergation and diffusion of investments and innovations from the more developed to the less developed areas. The period of natural spreading of new technologies and innovations after removal of state borders is a research problem that has been relatively unconsidered so far. In this respect, a natural experiment like the unification of Germany on October 3, 1990 seems to be a particularly interesting case. Such a time scale is an excellent starting point to study duration of diffusion of technologies and innovations from developed to developing areas. The research results can be predictive and shed some light on the potential economic effects of similar unification movements that could occur in the future. Such simulation could apply to North Korea and South Korea, if such integration would ever take place.

Author(s):

  • Agnieszka Anna Baklarz, Uniwersytet Warszawski Wydział Zarządzania
  • Jarosław Bogusz, Allianz
  • Czesław Martysz, Szkoła Główna Handlowa

Abstract title:
The models of the propagation of confidential information

Abstract:
Insider trading, being one of the symptoms of information asymmetry in stock exchange trading, is defined as a transaction carried out on the stock exchange on the basis of confidential information.
In the relatively short history of the existence of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, there are few cases of convictions for insider trading, that is for the disclosure and use of confidential information to perform a stock exchange transaction. In October 2018, one of several convictions for this crime has been passed (from the very beginning of the Warsaw Stock Exchange) for a crime which took place in October and November 2010.
The description of the insider trading case in this case has received wide coverage in the press (https://www.pb.pl/znany-inwestor-skazany-za-insider-trading-950603) and revealed one of the mechanisms of insider trading. From the point of view of modeling the propagation of information, this case provides a valuable lesson in as many as 3 various examples from a similar period of time. The convergence of the method of operation allows for the preparation of a model of propagation of information and a short-term increase in the share price and then the transition to the equilibrium price.

Author(s):

  • Agnieszka Anna Baklarz, Uniwersytet Warszawski Wydział Zarządzania
  • Jan Bogusław Gajda

Abstract title:
Verification of information flow and decision making models classified by types of confidential information in insider trading

Abstract:
Insider trading may be defined as a transaction carried out on the stock exchange based on confidential information. Insider trading is a punishable offence and in most countries of the world it is punishable by fine or imprisonment. The data on the actual insider trading are, to a large extent, impossible to obtain. Very often, however, insider trading is suspected.
Two simulation models were used to simulate the dissemination of confidential information. The first of said models examines the use of confidential information with the assumption of an infinitely long time of use. The second of the models assumes that confidential information will be used immediately (on the day of its receipt). The simulation results were referenced to the stock exchange data of selected companies from the sWIG80 index from 01/01/2010 - 31/12/2014. As a result of the research, we pointed out that the more likely model for the use of confidential information for small investors is the model consisting of immediate use of the received confidential information.

Poster SOCIO
Aleksander Jakimowicz, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Pl. Defilad 1, Warsaw, Poland

Author(s):
Aleksander Jakimowicz

Abstract title:
Macroeconomic Effects of Swiss-franc Loans on the Polish Economy

Abstract:
Mortgage loans indexed to Swiss Francs appeared in the Polish economy on a massive scale in the years 2006–2008, as they accounted for the vast majority of loans granted to consumers for the purchase of residential property at that time. Initially, they were advertised as more advantageous than loans granted in domestic currency due to their relatively lower interest rate. This resulted in the interest of a large number of consumers in Swiss-franc loans, as a result of which the total number of such loans is estimated at nearly one million. However, it quickly became apparent that consumers who had taken out such loans were exposed to unlimited foreign exchange risk. This was caused by a significant depreciation of the Polish zloty against the Swiss franc. The economic situation of consumers was also aggravated by the fact that they were charged for the bid-ask spread, the amount of which was freely determined by the banks. Since these loans were granted for several decades, their economic impact will be felt by at least several generations of consumers. In this context, the strong and long-term impact of these loans on the Keynesian consumption function is evident. The significance of these loans for the Polish economy was examined using the model by P.A. Samuelson, winner of the 1970 Nobel Prize in Economics. As it turns out, solving the problem of Swiss-franc loans requires systemic changes as provided for in the Council Directive 93/13/EEC of 5 April 1993 on unfair terms in consumer contracts, whereas government assistance in this area in the form of increased expenditure may prove ineffective.

Author(s):
Aleksander Jakimowicz, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences; Daniel Rzeczkowski, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn

Abstract title:
New Measure of Economic Development Based on the Four-Colour Theorem

Abstract:
The location quotient is one of the basic quantitative tools for identifying the regional poles and the turnpikes of economic growth in spatial economy. The disadvantage of this traditional measure is the limited scope of economic information contained in it. The new measure of economic development proposed in the article encompasses a complex spectrum of phenomena in one number, as it takes into account the influence of the public administration sector, as well as peak technology in the form of ICT and its practical business models. It also takes into account the digital prosumption and the platforms for participation. The participation platforms in the public administration sector are the websites of municipal public administration offices. A cluster analysis was used to distinguish four quality classes of these websites. These classes were assigned four different colours, which were then used to draw up a map of the selected province. Each municipality is marked with a colour that corresponds to the quality class of the website of the state administration office operating on its territory. The colour system resulting from the four-colour assumption and the corresponding dual graph play the role of a reference system in relation to each empirical colour distribution and another dual graph related to it. The measure of the economic development of a region is the degree of reduction of the dual graph corresponding to the empirical distribution of colours, which identifies the actual growth poles and determines the routes of growth. The presented indicator better and more precisely identifies poles and routes of economic growth than the traditional location quotient.

Poster ECONO
Aleksejus Kononovicius, Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astronomy, Vilnius University

Author(s):
Aleksejus Kononovicius, Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astronomy, Vilnius University

Abstract title:
Compartmental voter model

Abstract:

In this contribution we consider an opinion dynamics model inspired by the well-known Voter model and the Kawasaki interpretation of the Ising model. In the Kawasaki interpretation global magnetization is conserved (the spins of the particles are fixed), but local magnetization changes as particles swap their spins (alternatively, the particles swap their places). Here we translate this assumption to the subject of opinion dynamics. Namely, in our model agents reside in compartments (which we assume to represent neighborhoods belonging to a certain polling station). Agents can change the compartment they reside in, but the opinions of the agents themselves remain fixed. Agents change the compartments based on the rules inspired by the Voter model. There are multiple ways to implement these rules, but they all boil down to a simple homophily principle: the more agents with opinion $ S $ reside in the compartment, the more it is likely to attract more agents with opinion $ S $. We examine couple of possible implementations of these rules and show the impact of the slight differences between them. We provide empirical context to these theoretical developments by using Lithuanian parliamentary election data (see exploration of this data set by us [1, 2]) and Brexit referendum / UK census data (see exploration by a different group [3]).

[1] A. Kononovicius, Complexity 2017: 7354642 (2017). doi: 10.1155/2017/7354642. arXiv: 1704.02101 [physics.soc-ph].
[2] A. Kononovicius, APPA 133 (6): 1450 (2018). doi: 10.12693/APhysPolA.133.1450. arXiv: 1709.07655 [physics.soc-ph].
[3] T. Fenner et al., Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 2017 (28): 1750132 (2017). doi: 10.1142/S0129183117501327. arXiv: 1703.10548 [physics.soc-ph].

Oral
Andrzej Jarynowski, INSTITUT FUER VETERINAER-EPIDEMIOLOGIE UND BIOMETRIE, FU Berlin

Author(s):
Viitaly Belik, FU Berlin

Abstract title:
Possible effect on border fencing and animal corridors blocking on African Swine Fever (ASF) Virus propagation in Poland

Abstract:
We analyze 3487 ASF notification in Poland from February 2014 to April 2019 (50 out of 380 poviats have been affected and due to restrictions, almost 90% of farms in affected area stopped pig production) comprising event time, longitude and latitude (within the administrative unit of poviat), where at least one house swine or wild boar case was reported. We choose a pseudo gravity propagation model for future projection of disease spread taking into account: pig abundance (pork production chain), disease vectors (wild boar) density, and human failures to restrictions. We propose a multilayer approach to heuristic analysis of these 3 layers of networks related to disease propagation.
To verify a possible effect of the fence, we quantify the difference in transmission dynamics between regions at the country border (immigration hypothesis) and in the interior regions (endemicity hypothesis) and no significant difference between border and interior countries was observed. Additionally, we test a scenario in which all border poviats are disconnected on wild boars network layer. There is only a small difference in the arrival time to “Polish swine hot spot”, because most of the dynamics is currently happening on the West of the border counties.
To verify a possible effect of blocking animal corridors, we test a scenario in which all poviats on A1 motorway are disconnected on the outgoing wild boars layer. There is an important difference in the arrival time to “Polish swine hot spot”. This estimation seems to be in agreement with observed propagation in Baltic States (e.g. via Baltica and A1 in Lithuania).
It is important to mention, that our methodology capture only the upper limit of a theoretically perfect barrier and more analysis in realistic scenario is required.

Poster SOCIO
Andrzej Krawiecki, Faculty of Physics, Warsaw University of Technology, Koszykowa 75, PL-00-662 Warsaw

Author(s):
Andrzej Krawiecki, Faculty of Physics, Warsaw University of Technology, Koszykowa 75, PL-00-662 Warsaw

Abstract title:
Ferromagnetic and spin-glass-like transitions in the majority vote model on random graphs with repulsive interactions

Abstract:
Majority-vote model on random graphs is investigated in which a fraction $p$ of
edges corresponds to repulsive (antiferromagnetic) interactions between agents. The agents update their opinions
following with probability $1-q$ ($0 < q < 1/2$) the majority rule, and
otherwise acting independently. If the interactions between agents are symmetric the model
can be treated as a nonequilibrium counterpart of the
dilute spin glass model. In general, the interactions need not be symmetric, e.g., a
fraction of the agents can be anticonformists, with only repulsive interactions with their
neighbors. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and using the Binder cumulants method
phase diagrams in the $(p,q)$ plane are obtained for different variants of the model. For small
$p$ and with decreasing $q$ the model undergoes ferromagnetic transition at
a critical value $q=q_c$ decreasing with $p$, which agrees well with that evaluated in the
mean-field approximation. For large $p$ and with decreasing $q$ the model undergoes transition to a spin-glass-like
state, characterized by a non-zero value of the spin-glass order parameter measuring the overlap
of agents$^{\prime}$ opinions in two replicas of the system, and simultaneously by the magnetization
close to zero. In the case of symmetric interactions between agents the phase diagram
resembles qualitatively that for dilute spin glass models and a tricritical point occurs where the
the paramagnetic, ferromagnetic and spin-glass-like phases coexist. In the case of generally asymmetric interactions for
intermediate values of $p$ there is no phase transition with decreasing $q$ and only the
disordered phase is observed.

Poster SOCIO
Angelika Abramiuk, Wydział Matematyki Politechniki Wrocławskiej

Author(s):
Angelika Abramiuk, Wydział Matematyki Politechniki Wrocławskiej

Abstract title:
Is independence necessary for a social hysteresis within the $q$-voter model?

Abstract:
We investigate the $q$-voter model, a metaphorical agent-based model (ABM), of opinion dynamics on a complete graph with two types of response to social influence: conformity and anticonformity. We ask a question if a discontinuous phase transition and the related social hysteresis is possible within the model with anticonformity. Previously it was claimed that within the $q$-voter model social hysteresis can emerge only because of an independent behaviour. However, this claim was derived for models with the same size of the influence groups for each type of responses to social influence. Now we abandon this assumption and we introduce a generalised model, in which the size of the group needed for conformity $q_c$ and the size of the group for anticonformity $q_a$ are independent variables, and in general $q_c \neq q_a$. We show that such modification of the model displays both types of phase transitions depending on parameters $q_c$ and $q_a$.

Poster SOCIO

Various methods and techniques of machine learning are presented and critically evaluated in the context of possible applications in complex systems. In particular, a class imbalanced classification learning problem is discussed. This is a well-known big issue in real-world applications as dealing with data exhibiting imbalanced class distribution is both very important and very hard task. Some of existing methods in this area are presented and applied to complex systems, including (a) extreme learning machine (ELM), being a competitive machine learning technique (b) weighted extreme learning machine (WELM) and (c) weighted support vector machine (WSVM). If time permits, also nontrivial applications of random forest (RF), being an ensemble supervised machine learning technique, will be given.

Invited
Bartłomiej Nowak, Politechnika Wrocławska; Katedra Fizyki Teoretycznej

Author(s):

  • Bartłomiej Nowak, Department of Theoretical Physics, Wrocław University of Science and Technology
  • Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron, Department of Theoretical Physics, Wrocław University of Science and Technology

Abstract title:
Homogeneous Symmetrical Threshold Model with Nonconformity: Independence versus Anticonformity

Abstract:
We study two variants of the modified Watts threshold model with a noise (with nonconformity, in the terminology of social psychology) on a complete graph and a random regular graph. Within the first version, a noise is introduced via so-called independence, whereas in the second version anticonformity plays the role of a noise, which destroys the order. The modified Watts threshold model, studied here, is homogeneous and possesses an up-down symmetry, which makes it similar to other binary opinion models with a single-flip dynamics, such as the majority-vote and the q-voter models. Because within the majority-vote model with independence only continuous phase transitions are observed, whereas within the q-voter model with independence also discontinuous phase transitions are possible, we ask the question about the factor, which could be responsible for discontinuity of the order parameter. We investigate the model via the mean-field approach, which gives the exact result in the case of a complete graph, as well as via Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, we provide a heuristic reasoning, which explains observed phenomena. We show that indeed if the threshold r = 0.5, which corresponds to the majority-vote model, an order-disorder transition is continuous. Moreover, results obtained for both versions of the model (one with independence and the second one with anticonformity) give the same results, only rescaled by the factor of 2. However, for r > 0.5 the jump of the order parameter and the hysteresis is observed for the model with independence, and both versions of the model give qualitatively different results. We check also if discontinuous phase transition can be visible in model without independence, and how above results presents on random regular graph.

Oral
Czeslaw Mesjasz, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie

Author(s):
Czesław Mesjasz. Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie

Abstract title:
Complexity of Social Systems and Awareness of Ignorance

Abstract:
Applications of the ideas related to complexity and chaos allow for presenting the hypothesis that every use of the those utterances reflects ignorance of the observer/participant. This hypothesis relates to all attempts to define complexity – quantitative and qualitative. This observation was made by several authors, e.g. Simon and by Gell-Mann and Lloyd 2004 who define mathematical sense of ignorance in systems complexity. This definition means that the less we understand about how social system behaves, the more complex is the phenomenon. The aim of the paper is to extend the meaning of quantitative and qualitative definitions of complexity of social systems. A draft version of extension of definitions is proposed: Complexity of social system can be defined as awareness of the observer/participant of limitations of possibility to identify the system’s properties (“awareness of ignorance”) essential for its description, identifying causal links and prediction. It may result both from insufficient amount of measurable information and also from increasing amount of measurable information available for observer/participant. Complexity can be either the result of insufficient measurable information or the result of increasing amount of measurable information available for the observer/participant. Paradoxically, in some cases complexity can be better understood by rejection of information. This paradox can be partly solved by understanding of ignorance. It means that the participant/observer has to be able to assess his/her capability to deal with knowledge and ignorance about his/her ignorance (I do not know what I do not know), and to decide about a relevant process of eliminating information or searching for information when defining complexity of social system.

 

Oral
Daniel Rzeczkowski, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn; Faculty of Economics

Author(s):

  • Aleksander Jakimowicz, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences
  • Daniel Rzeczkowski, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn

Abstract title:
Diversification of the Innovation Strategy of Polish Industrial Processing Companies

Abstract:
This article aims to define the innovation strategy of industrial enterprises in the period 2012–2014 with emphasis on the effects of the exogenous shock caused by the global financial crisis. The diversification of the innovation strategy is studied in relation to the size of the enterprise, i.e. depending on whether it is small, medium or large. This categorisation is based on staffing limits and financial criteria, such as annual turnover and/or annual balance sheet total. In doing so, consideration is given to the supply of the factors of production, i.e. labour and capital. The research included such variables as the geographical scope of markets, types of innovative activity of enterprises, enterprises’ decisions regarding forms of introduced innovations, ways of developing product and process innovations, types of eco-innovations most frequently encountered in industrial processing and innovation barriers. The correspondence analysis was chosen as the research method, because of the large number of variables and the need to specify the relationship between them. The results were ambivalent. On the one hand, industrial processing enterprises showed a low propensity for innovation, which could have resulted from the persistence of exogenous shock effects while, on the other hand, they also exhibited a growing interest in eco-innovation. This indicates the need to initiate a pro-innovation policy focused on eco-innovation, which may contribute to overcoming the negative effects of external shock in the form of psychological reluctance to innovation, manifested by excessive caution in their planning and commercialisation.

Poster ECONO

Pages

CO-ORGANIZERS: